A national poll conducted by Harvard University’s Institute of Politics (IOP) shows that Democrat John F. Kerry holds a 10-point lead over President George W. Bush among university students in America.

Support for Senator Kerry, which IOP describes as “soft”, appears to be as a result of the President’s stance on gay marriage, as well as dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq and the continuing weak job market.

The finding represent a turnaround from the IOP’s poll conducted in the autumn which found college students more supportive of Bush that the general public.

“Concern over the war in Iraq and the weakness in the job market has caught up with President Bush,” Dan Clickman, the IOP Director, commented.

“College students now share the general public’s more mixed view of the President, and Senator Kerry is benefiting from that shift.

“Still, these are highly independent voters who are open to persuasion,” he warned.  “It would be in the interests of both parties to court them.”

The survey of 1205 college students drawn randomly from a database of America’s 5.1 million students finds –

They favour Kerry over Bush, but Kerry’s support is soft.   Sen. Kerry leads the President by 48 to 38 percent.  Ralph Nader draws five percent of the vote.  But Kerry’s support is soft – 37 percent of those surveyed say they do not know enough about the Senator to have formed an opinion of him or do not recognise his name.  It appears that many of those who say they are planning to vote for Sen. Kerry are simple looking for an alternative to President Bush.

Support for the President has declined as concerns about Iraq grow.  Support for the war in Iraq dropped from 58 percent six months ago to 49 percent.  At the same time, Bush’s job approval rating fell 14 points from 61 to 47 percent.

They support legalising gay marriage.  Fifty-seven percent support gay marriage, which is opposed by 61 percent of the general population.

They continue to view the job market as weak.   Two-thirds believe it will be difficult to find a job after leaving university, almost identical to the October 2003 poll when the national economy was considered even weaker than today.

They remain highly independent but have distanced themselves from the Republicans.  A plurality of students continues to identify themselves as independent – 41 percent now, compared with 38 percent six months ago.  However, fewer students call themselves Republicans – 24 percent, compared with 31 percent last autumn.  Democratic identification increased for 27 to 31 percent over the same period.

Sixty two percent of those surveyed said they have been following the Presidential campaign closely – and the same percentage they will “definitely” vote in November.

The poll also showed that many students, particularly those in the “centre” of the political spectrum, are still forming their own political beliefs and party affiliations.  These potential voters are especially concerned with social issues and are looking for candidates who will speak to their issues and seek their involvement.

Students from Harvard University designed the poll which was conducted by telephone between March 12 and 23, in consultation with Professor David King and pollster John Della Volpe whose firm conducted the poll and analysed the data.

Complete results of the poll, and past surveys, can be found online on the IOP’s website.

16 April, 2004